I’d been watching problems in the markets for a long time, watching how the United States was pushing for a global oil crisis, but something still didn’t add up.
Why would they want a worldwide oil crisis right before midterms?
If you’re new here, I’ll leave you the article where I explain how the United States is triggering the coming oil crisis:
-Why is an oil crisis coming at the end of 2026?
There was one last piece I was missing to make it all fit. Let’s look at it.
The global oil crisis
As we saw in the previous investigation, Bessent, the Trump administration, and Kevin Warsh have objectives to meet, and an oil crisis would fulfill them perfectly, while also pulling even more capital into the United States and making the rest of the world poorer.
If everyone loses 5 and I lose 1, I’m the one who wins, even though we all lose.
I won’t repeat everything I laid out in that article, so let’s go straight to how the missing piece fits.
My question was:
If an oil crisis was coming, why cause it before the midterms?
It didn’t make sense. I thought they’d wait until after the midterms to set it off, until the last piece of the puzzle showed up today.
“Trump: If the Democrats win the midterm elections, we will face an economic recession.”
I’ve only just started publishing, and I know a lot of you don’t know me yet. But if there’s one thing I’m good at in life, at the expense of plenty of others I’m terrible at, like painting or anything that requires even a hint of feeling, it’s understanding why someone says something. Connecting the dots that look invisible at first glance, and knowing exactly what interests sit behind their words.
In this case, such a short sentence implies so much that, to keep this from getting too long, I’ll explain it quickly and simply.
The masterstroke
During these months, while everyone was saying they had no idea what they were doing and that it was one mistake after another, the United States has followed a clear plan. To see it quickly: first the objectives, then the move they’ve made up to today and the next steps they’re going to take.
Objectives
The Trump administration must win the war against China at all costs and remain the world’s dominant power. As Trump said a couple of days ago, whoever dominates AI will win the war. Well, to dominate AI you need data centers; to have data centers you need to attract as much capital as possible to the United States; and to attract that capital you need very bullish stock markets that pull in foreign money to fund the leading companies in the sector, the ones that will build the infrastructure and IP needed to dominate it for the next 20 years.
Bessent, the Treasury Secretary, needs interest rates as low as possible. He has an enormous, exponential wall of debt, and a rate hike could make the house of cards the economy has become blow up in his face.
Kevin Warsh, Fed Chair, needs to appear independent, and I say appear, because as we can see he has little of it. The United States needs low rates, but Warsh can’t cut them with inflation this high without losing credibility and independence.
The plan
The first thing the United States did was directly stress the market by triggering a war with Iran, hoping they would close the Strait of Hormuz. When Iran closed it and then prepared to reopen it, the U.S. made sure to keep it closed themselves to keep stressing the markets.
The United States started intervening in the oil price, holding a fictitious paper price. That’s how they’ve kept it all these months, actively below $120.
In recent weeks, while the world’s oil reserves are emptying, the Iran war has openly gotten worse, with larger attacks and escalations. At the same time, the Houthis, coincidence of coincidences, have started attacking the world’s second-largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, hitting and destroying refineries and oil tankers. When Saudi Arabia asked the U.S. for help defending itself, they, another coincidence, said no, and three days later struck a deal with the Houthis so they would only attack Saudi Arabia and not the United States.
Where we are now: diesel has already broken its all-time high, oil is back around $100, and every piece is in place for the crisis. Now they just have to pull the trigger.
On one side they will restrict physical oil supply, worsening the war with Iran and, possibly, cutting exports to the world or finding something similar to finally stress the physical market. At the same time they will stop intervening to the downside in the paper market. The perfect storm for oil and diesel prices to explode.
The world will be plunged into an energy crisis that will send inflation soaring. The United States doesn’t care: someone else will pick up the bill.
That crisis will cause a fast, brutal stock-market drop that will wipe out the bulls, wipe out the leveraged players, and compress the expensive multiples the market is trading on today.
When everyone is screaming in panic, the headlines are full of alarmism, and the market is packed with bears, that’s when oil will peak, and with it inflation. Markets, which price this in six to twelve months ahead, will put in a bottom. From there you have the perfect setup for an ultra-bullish 2027 that inflates the speculative AI bubble they need to fund their data centers.
Meanwhile, the stock-market drop will give the bond market a breather, which will keep Bessent happy. As for Warsh, he’ll have the perfect excuse to say something is breaking in the economy, cut rates, and fire up the printing press injecting liquidity, without losing credibility and while looking independent. He might not cut: in the 2000 bubble rates went up and the bubble inflated anyway. That will depend on bonds, but that’s another story.
As you can see, an oil crisis maximizes America’s objectives. It makes its allies poorer, it doesn’t suffer the crisis the way everyone else does, it gets lower rates and bond yields to finance the debt, and all the world’s capital will flow into U.S. markets in 2027 to fund the bubble and win the war they’re so hungry for.
The countries likely to be hit hardest are the European ones. As of today, this has already started.
The closing piece
The piece I was missing, the one we saw earlier, was when they would set that crisis off. Until now I thought it would be after the midterms. But seeing everything they’ve already set in motion, and that they’re going to lose the midterms, the play is clear: once people vote and the Democrats win, they’ll let it all explode and blame them for a crisis they designed themselves.
The decision
With my public $40,000 portfolio, that you can see here, I know exactly what I’m going to do: wait patiently. Wait for their plan to play out, for everyone to scream in panic, and when it looks like the end, buy the assets that will benefit from the 2027 bubble.
Be careful, investors: fill your tanks, get your portfolios ready, keep a cool head, and use this plan to build wealth that grows even as the world changes.
I’ll be here every week beside you in the markets and in this increasingly noisy, polarized, and dangerous world, trying to offer an independent voice and help you however I can.
To follow everything that happens each week, join the chat.
Good luck, investor.
