During my years certifying helicopters, I learned to understand complex systems and to put my signature, and my responsibility, behind what I say.

It makes sense. Your life depends on it, because you’ll be the first one to fly it. The lives of the 15 people who board after you sign off depend on it too. So of course you work yourself to the bone to understand every system completely, so that if there’s a fault or a problem, you catch it. Right?

So let me ask you a question: why are your life, your money and your loved ones’ future riding on a world and an economic system that most people never bother to understand? With helicopters, the answer was obvious. Why isn’t it here?

The World

I’m going to speak to you as plainly as I’d want someone to speak to me. The world is, and always has been, a hostile place. It doesn’t matter that we were lucky enough to grow up with full bellies, in one of the longest periods of peace in history.

It seems that luck has made us forget that not so long ago, people had four children because two wouldn’t make it. Or that if you weren’t prepared, one year of drought could wipe out entire towns.

That’s the world human beings have grown up in for centuries. One where we’ve always moved in the same unbreakable cycle. Horrific chapters of history bring people together. They promise never to repeat the atrocities they’ve just committed. They promise to work hard, to rebuild a country or a civilization from its ruins, and to give their children a better future.

As the generations pass, the people who rebuilt the country and saw what humans are capable of die off, and the values that rebuilt it die with them. What’s left are their children, who have only ever known full bellies and the pleasures of life. Those children, and their children after them, devote their lives to power, money and pleasure, and leave behind every value that once built their country and made it great.

And that is exactly what fractures a society that was once united: the rich get richer, and the poor get poorer. Behind all of it, there’s always a broken economic system that allows these political and social divides, fuels them, and causes them.

The cycle comes back around, and this generation digs its own grave. The fights over power and money grow. The divides become impossible to bridge. And the weeds of war come back: the same weeds their great-grandparents watched sprout and grow beneath their feet, and then pulled out with death, sweat and sacrifice.

This generation will see what humans are capable of, and how cruel a world can be when you don’t bother to understand it until it’s too late.

The Big Cycle

What I just described is the cycle that built empires, and then watched them burn to the ground. The Roman Empire. The Spanish. The Dutch. The British. Every one of them fell the same way: a currency that lost its value, and a people who lost their values.

Which brings us to today. An empire born out of World War II, when people saw the very worst of humanity and promised themselves never again.

Everyone worked together to build the United States into the world’s dominant power, on the foundations of Bretton Woods, the petrodollar and the SWIFT system. A United States that opened the doors of democracy and capitalism to the world. And a people who turned a country into an empire.

But those people died. And now, only their children are left.

The Present

And that brings us to right now. The moment I’m writing this and you’re reading it. A moment in history defined by political polarization and an economic divide that’s almost impossible to close.

A world where a damn monkey in the jungle has a place to live and raise its family, but your young people don’t. They can’t afford a home, let alone raise a family.

Countries that call themselves the cradle of rights and democracy, and yet their young people have no future.

All of it caused by a people who lost their values. People who have only ever known full bellies and money in their pockets, who live for their own enjoyment and the pleasures of life.

People who taught their kids that life was a bed of roses. That they would get everything they wanted. That there were no limits.

But those kids grew up and found a broken world. One where they spend their lives working and still can’t afford a place to live. Where their jobs grind them down, their governments lie to them, and inflation eats almost their entire paycheck just to eat and keep a roof over their heads. Every month the prices go up, and every month there’s less in the shopping cart.

And on top of that, when they speak up, they get told it’s their fault. It’s the Netflix subscription. That’s why they can’t buy a $400,000 house that sold for under $100,000 forty years ago. That’s the answer they get from a generation that never bothered to understand the system and the world it lives in.

And I know that, because if they had bothered to understand it, they’d see why forty years ago one paycheck could buy a house and support a family, and today two paychecks can’t do either. If they understood it, they’d be ashamed to give that answer. And they’d be ashamed of the world they’ve left to their children.

That frustration in young people turns into extremism, on the right and on the left. Fascism and communism, back to their old tricks in a cycle that never ends.

Extremes that aim young people’s anger at an enemy that has nothing to do with what’s really wrong with their country. Communism points it at people with money. Fascism points it at immigrants.

And all that anger does is win them votes. Votes that win them power. Backed by people who have never felt in their own flesh what fascism and communism do to a country.

It’s not just that they never lived it. They never bothered to understand history either, or to look at how many people both extremes have killed over the centuries. They didn’t bother. But their parents, instead of teaching them the truth about the world, hid the worst of humanity from them. And now, like so many times before, these young people are falling into the same trap.

All because of generations that forgot that democracy means power of the people.

Generations that, instead of caring about the world and the system they lived in, gave themselves over to the pleasures of life. And let the economic, political and social system that once made them great die.

Have you ever asked yourself why your kids are never taught anything about money? Have you ever asked why they’re told they need a huge house, an expensive car, two vacations a year and the latest iPhone? Could it be that if you teach people to live their whole lives in debt, they’ll keep working until their very last day? And could it be that if they live paycheck to paycheck, with no safety net, anyone can do whatever they want with them?

Have you bothered to ask why home prices never stop rising, no matter which party is in power? Why the money printing never stops, no matter who’s in charge?

And have you stopped to think that the more polarized you are, the more you hate each other, the more you fight left against right, the less power you have? Because a divided people is never a threat.

Because while you point fingers at each other, whoever gets into power lies, steals, manipulates, and gets bought by people with power and money. So they only look out for them, and couldn’t care less about the people.

And it doesn’t matter which party. All of them stole your children’s future right under your noses, and nobody said a word. Because you were too busy fighting each other and chasing pleasures that were supposed to make you happy.

And so the cycle goes on. The divides grow wider. The polarization grows more extreme. And the system breaks. When it breaks, the atrocities come back. And out of that suffering and that pain will come the generations that make a country great again. If there’s anything left of it.

The End of Peace

The United States, once the unchallenged dominant power, now faces a rival. China. A country of 1.4 billion people that has topped almost every growth ranking for decades.

Many people believe peace exists because human beings are good. I believe the exact opposite. For eighty years, no one has had the economic or military power to stand toe to toe with the dominant power. That’s what gave us what we’ve all lived through. A long period of peace across most of the world.

Now that dominant power is being challenged. And as it has every time in history, the peace that came with it is under threat too.

Because history is very clear about what happens when two great powers fight for control of the world. First comes an economic war. If that’s not enough, a proxy war. And if that’s not enough, a direct confrontation, until one of them gives in.

Sometimes, and this is our hope, the dominant power simply accepts that it’s going to be overtaken. Unfortunately, that’s not what’s happening now.

The Heart of the World

Now that we understand what has always moved the world, and the moment we’re living in, let’s look at where we’re headed.

We’ll start with the heart of the economy. Oil. Throughout 2026, the United States has been putting pressure on the entire global supply chain. Why?

Because it’s already in an open war with China. Stage two, the proxy war. Which means it has to fight to keep its place as the world’s dominant power, and to hold on to its economic and military control.

To win this war, it only needs one thing. Power. And power only comes from one thing. Money. To get that money, you need to pull in as much of the world’s capital as you can. And to do that, you need strong capital markets and a strong dollar.

A strong dollar crushes everyone else, especially emerging markets. Why? Because their dollar debt becomes much harder to pay back. Global investors see this and pull their money out of those countries. And where do they put it? In the United States. In its bonds and its stocks.

It works the other way around too. When the dollar falls, capital flows out of the United States and into emerging markets, which can now not only pay their debt, but borrow even more to grow.

So if the United States needs a strong dollar, strong capital markets and as much of the world’s money as it can attract to win a war with China, how is it going to do it?

With an oil crisis.

The Supply Chain

The United States has been following a clear plan since early 2026. While everyone says they have no idea what they’re doing, I’d like you to look at this.

These are the world’s biggest oil exporters.

1. United States. The world’s leading exporter of crude and refined products.

2. Saudi Arabia. Its refineries attacked by the Houthis.

3. Russia. Its refineries attacked by Ukraine.

4. Canada. Under pressure from the Trump administration.

5. Iraq. Trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz, with shipments down 76%.

6. United Arab Emirates. Named by Iran as its main target.

7. Iran. In a direct war with the United States.

Now, a question. Do you really think it’s a coincidence that every single one of the world’s top oil exporters, except the United States, is under threat or in open conflict?

And let me be clear. I’m far from a believer in conspiracy theories. I believe in power, money and incentives.

But wouldn’t a global oil crisis hurt the United States too? Of course it would. But there’s something you need to understand, and it doesn’t just apply to the world. It applies to your own life too.

If everyone else loses five and I lose one, I’m the one who wins. Even though we all lost.

The Stock Market

Now you might say, “But J.C., if they cause a global oil crisis, wouldn’t the stock market fall?” Yes, it would. And, in the right dose, that’s exactly the point.

A drop in the stock market would flush out all the excess and leverage in the system. And, paradoxically, it would set the stage for a very bullish 2027 and 2028.

Why do they want markets that strong? Because they need to fund the artificial intelligence race. They need to build every data center that will make them the dominant power in AI for the next twenty years. Just like in the late 1990s, when a roaring market funded the infrastructure of the internet.

That boom made the United States the dominant power in that technology, and gave it some of the most important companies in the world, like Google and Amazon.

To launch those bullish markets in 2027 and 2028, and pull in as much of the world’s money as possible, they first need a correction. And then an excuse.

An excuse to print more money. An excuse to pump liquidity into the markets, refinance their debt, and keep printing and printing.

So What Is the Market Pricing In?

Exactly this. A market correction and an oil crisis, following the same chain that has played out for decades.

OIL

First, oil, the energy heart of the world.

Oil is breaking out of the downtrend channel it has been stuck in since 2022. At the same time, the long-term triangle projects a move toward roughly $180, and its momentum indicators have all turned up.

If oil is the heart of the economy, diesel is the heart of inflation. Almost everything you buy was made or moved with diesel. When its price rises, it hits everyone’s wallet, directly or indirectly.

Diesel has just broken above a channel that held for decades, and now it’s resting on top of it. If that holds, my read is that diesel’s uptrend is clear. And combined with oil’s, even more so.

All these bullish signals come from the same place. Strain across the entire supply chain for oil and its products, where six of the world’s top seven exporters are in trouble.

BONDS

Bonds have already started to price in higher, more persistent inflation. On one side, commodities are rising. On the other, there’s massive money printing and debt, which has bond buyers wondering whether governments will be able to pay back what they owe.

THE DOLLAR

And the dollar has already started to price in that the Fed will have to raise rates, and that the United States will be the world’s safe haven when trouble hits. Every one of its charts is flashing bullish signals.

Dr. Copper and the Old King

Copper is one of the first commodities to warn of trouble in the economy. The logic is simple. When copper is rising, the economy is doing well. When it’s falling, the economy is in trouble.

It all comes down to demand. A strong economy uses more copper across every industry, which pushes the price up. A weak one uses less, and the price falls.

Right now, copper has just flashed a major bearish signal. The last time I saw it was in 2022, and copper fell 37% in four months.

As for gold, its long-term uptrend is undeniable. It’s an asset that has served as a store of value throughout history, and it has survived every cycle of war and peace humanity has ever been through.

In the short and medium term, for now it’s signaling a correction. In my view, it could come back down to rest on its old channel, and from there start a new, very strong uptrend. The more money gets printed and the more conflict there is in the world, the better it tends to be for gold.

BONUS

There’s one more thing I want to add, because it could spread through the media and people may start talking about a carry trade crisis.

The carry trade props up a significant part of the world’s markets. It works like this. You borrow yen at almost zero interest, convert them into dollars, and invest them in markets that pay more than Japan’s.

When the interest rate gap between Japan and the United States narrows, the trade stops paying off, and people sell their US positions to pay back their yen debt.

The same thing happens with USD/JPY. When it rises, the yen gets weaker, the yen debt gets cheaper, and the trade keeps paying. When it falls, the yen gets stronger, the debt gets more expensive, and people are forced to sell their dollar assets to buy back yen. That buying makes the yen even stronger, which forces even more selling.

USD/JPY is already warning that problems are starting to show. It’s flashing a major bearish signal that could trigger a pullback toward its average, and with it, a wave of selling in US assets.

MAJOR INDEXES

We’ve reached the last link in this chain. The major indexes tend to be the last to fall, but once they start pricing in what every other asset has already been signaling, they fall fast and hard.

The first and most volatile to react to a world of inflation and high rates are small and mid-sized companies. As I write this, the Russell 2000 is already in a correction. It flashed a bearish signal in the middle of this summer, it’s already down nearly 10%, and it has just lost its 200-day average.

On the monthly chart, it’s forming what’s known as a bull trap. In May it broke above its long-term channel, but it did so with a bearish divergence on the daily chart and with its monthly MACD turning down. In my view, it’s a bull trap that could lead to a correction toward the lower part of its channel, and from there a strong bounce. But we’ll have to watch how it plays out. For now, everything seems lined up for it.

Finally, the biggest ones. These indexes tend to be the last to move, but they’re already sending bearish signals again.

The S&P 500 is the index that leads the world’s stock markets. It has just sent bearish signals, and like the Russell, it may be setting a bull trap. It broke above its medium-term channel, but once again, it did so with a bearish divergence on the weekly chart and with its monthly MACD starting to turn down.

The Nasdaq 100 is another index that would be hit hard by the scenario the market is starting to price in. Once again, it’s signaling a correction, and it’s following the same pattern as the S&P 500, a possible bull trap.

THE LEADERS

Over these eleven years, I’ve noticed that when a correction starts, it almost always starts the same way, in the market’s leaders. First they flash bearish signals and start to fall. The indexes stay up, because money rotates inside them, out of the most overbought names and into the most oversold.

Then the leaders keep falling, and the final wave of selling hits. Right now, the leaders are once again flashing major bearish signals.

These are just a few examples of bearish signals that have shown up across a wide range of sector leaders in tech, which carries the most weight in the indexes.

In Short

Every asset in the market is following the same chain that has played out so many times before. Together, they’re pricing in a correction, a fast and violent one. I don’t know what excuse the media will use for it, whether it’ll be an oil crisis, a carry trade crisis, or something else entirely. What I do know is that every asset is lined up in the same direction, all at once.

The market is getting ready to fall.

And How Do You Know It’ll Only Be a Correction?

I can’t know for sure. But here’s why I think so.

First, because of everything we’ve covered. I don’t count on human goodness. I count on incentives, interests, and the fact that a lot of people’s money is riding on a very bullish 2027 and 2028 in the United States.

Second, they’re not going to stop printing money. And the more money they print, the more they debase the currency, the more inflation there is, and the higher stocks and gold tend to go.

From 2020 to today, inflation has soared, home prices are up almost 60%, and your children’s future has been wrecked.

They tell you it’s the fault of wars and conflicts abroad. What nobody tells you is that in 2020 and 2021 alone, the US created about 28% of all the dollars in circulation. In just two years, it added almost half as much money as it had in the previous forty. Of course inflation took off.

A good thermometer for this is M2. It isn’t every dollar in existence, but it’s a good gauge of how much money is being printed.

I think this chart alone makes the system you live in clear. One where they never stop printing money to pay the debt, which keeps inflation rising and widens social divides even further.

That’s why I believe home and food prices will keep going up. And that’s why I believe stocks and gold will too, over the long run. Because they won’t stop debasing the currency, and they won’t stop widening these divides.

So even if the news makes it look like the end of the world and the bubble finally bursting, my read is that the correction will end and markets will recover. And I hope 2027 and 2028 turn out to be the kind of years you only see once every couple of decades.

So What Am I Going to Do?

After months of studying everything above, my move is clear.

First, I’ll wait for the markets to correct and fill with panic, just as the whole chain of assets is pricing in.

Second, when everyone is saying the bubble has burst, I’ll buy, for two reasons. One, because the interests of a lot of people with power and money are riding on an AI bubble in 2027 and 2028, one that pays for the infrastructure needed to dominate the technology. Two, because they won’t stop printing money and debasing the currency, and sooner or later that will send markets back up.

That’s why I’ve built a public $40,000 portfolio that I’ll share openly. Every week, we’ll read the market together and see how things unfold.

The idea behind this portfolio is to see how far a long-term investor can go when they understand the world and the market their money and their future depend on. That’s why the $40,000 is fixed. There will be no new contributions, so we can measure the performance clearly.

I’ll share the wins, the mistakes, and everything that happens along the way. I’ve also put together a watchlist of assets I’ve studied and hope to buy during the correction. I’ll share it in upcoming articles.

If There’s One Thing I Want You to Take From This Article, It’s This

I don’t care whether you agree with what I’ve said here today. I’m not looking for anyone’s approval or respect. I don’t care if you’re on the right, the left, or anywhere else. But what I need you to understand is that hard times are coming for the world.

Times that will feel new to all of us, because it’s the first time they’ve happened in our lifetimes. And yet they’ve happened so many times throughout history that we’re just one more stage in this endless loop called human psychology.

I want you to understand that no, you’re not crazy. What you’re seeing is real. If you feel like everything is getting worse, it is. If every time you get paid at the end of the month your paycheck covers a little less, that’s true, and it’s only going to get worse.

They won’t stop printing money, debasing the currency, and making inflation worse.

And what I need you to understand is that you have to protect yourself. You have to protect your money, you have to protect your future, and you have to protect the people you love.

And the best way to do that is to invest. What you invest in is your decision, but you have to do it. Because when things get ugly, it won’t be human kindness or goodwill that saves you.

It will be understanding the world as it really is, and having enough financial strength to face whatever comes, so you can secure your future and the future of the people you love.

Thank you for reading all the way to the end. I know it was a long one, but some things can’t be said in a minute.

See you next week.

J.C. Rodriguez

The leaders

We’ll start with the biggest picture and work our way down. First, the leaders of the world’s stock markets, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100.

As you can see, both have flashed bearish signals at the same time, pointing to a possible correction down to their weekly moving averages. That would mean a 30% drop for the Nasdaq 100 and a 22% drop for the S&P 500.

On their own, these are two very important signals, but they’re isolated. So let’s see what the rest of the market is saying.

Small and mid caps are a huge part of the market. They’re the first to turn when something is wrong. And as we’ll see, markets are starting to price in a correction. While the main leaders are only now giving signals, others are already feeling it.

The Russell gave the same bearish signal we just saw on the Nasdaq and the S&P 500, but on its daily chart, and it’s already paying for it. A 10% drop, with a correction to its moving average, which it lost just as I was writing this.

To keep this article from getting too long, I won’t show other indices. But this is starting to show up across the market, in many of the most important global indices, like Europe, Japan and China.

Now let’s look at what the biggest components of these indices are saying. Market breadth is pretty bad right now, so if these leaders fail, the indices have no ground underneath to hold them up. In fact, look at this.

Most stocks in these indices are already in a correction. That’s why, if the leaders fail, the indices will turn lower, and they’re already starting to warn us. Let’s look at them.

Tech

The sector that has driven the stock market since 2022 and the arrival of ChatGPT is, without a doubt, semiconductors and tech. Well, this is what they’re starting to signal.

I think this speaks for itself. It’s not just the indices showing correction signals, it’s their leaders too. And it follows the classic chain, leaders first, then the index.

But what about the S&P 500? Well, this is how its sectors break down.

We’ve already covered tech, so let’s look at financials. Together, these two already make up 50% of the index.

Once again, the same signals are showing up beneath the surface. All of them point to a drop similar to the 22% on the main index. Everything points to a correction down to the weekly moving average.

Maybe you’re thinking, sure, but this probably happens all the time. Look, I’ve been investing for 11 years, and the last time I saw this setup was in December 2021, right before the 2022 correction that sent the Nasdaq down 38%.

That time, the correction came with the end of cheap money. Bond yields started rising because inflation had exploded. That forced a repricing in every sector most dependent on financing and trading at higher multiples, like tech.

So let’s look at what the market is pricing in this time, and why all these indices and leading stocks are signaling a correction.

As for why that 2021 inflation happened, the one that caused the correction, we’ll get to that at the end.

3 problems at the heart of the market and the economy

Put simply, what moves markets is the liquidity central banks pump into the economy. A lot of people say earnings move the market, and that’s true, but liquidity is what moves those earnings. If the world’s money supply grows, earnings naturally go up. If they start draining it, earnings naturally go down.

Interest rates, which is probably what you’re most familiar with, are just one of the many tools they have to inject liquidity.

And what do they base their decision to inject or drain liquidity on? Mainly on paying off governments’ exponential debt, but also on inflation and the economy.

As one of the greatest investors in the world once said, a lukewarm economy is the best thing for markets, because central banks will inject liquidity to bring it back to life. A booming, overheated economy is its worst enemy, because they’ll drain liquidity from the system, and you can say goodbye to the markets for a while.

That’s the backdrop as we reach the end of 2026, with a huge problem in oil. Strained shipping routes and supply chains, and attacks on the world’s biggest oil exporters.

And the market has already started pricing it in.

Oil is the heart of the economy, because a rise passes straight through to inflation. If this plays out, we’d see real problems, not just in the markets, but in everyone’s pocket and in the global economy.

Another key asset in the world is the dollar, the global reserve currency. Put simply, when it rises, that’s good for US stocks in the long run, because it pulls in capital from around the world, and it’s bad for emerging markets. When it falls, those flows leave the US for emerging markets.

That’s because these countries’ debt is denominated in dollars. When the dollar rises, that debt gets harder to pay, and capital flees those countries for the US.

For markets, a rising dollar puts downward pressure on stocks in the short term, and it’s also a safe haven. When people see trouble in the markets, they sell and hide in dollar bonds, which sends the dollar soaring.

As you can see, the market is once again pricing in trouble, and it’s already showing in the dollar. Unlike everything else we’ve looked at, it has a bullish trend and an upside target in play.

Finally, let’s look at bonds. I know many of you aren’t familiar with them, but they’re literally the scaffolding that holds up the entire economy. Rising yields can bankrupt a country in less than a year, as we’ve seen before. That’s why bonds are truly the most important piece of the economy.

Here we can see how cheap money died in 2022. That’s what caused the correction back then. Today, yields keep climbing and are starting to put too much pressure on governments and companies. Every AI company is building its data centers with bond financing, and interest costs keep going up.

What is the market pricing in?

As you’ve seen, it’s pricing in a chain that’s older than you and me. Expensive oil drives up inflation, which pushes bond yields higher, which makes the Fed raise rates to kill that inflation, which leads to a stronger dollar.

Caught in the middle of all that, stocks are being hit on four fronts at once. Inflation, the dollar, oil and bonds.

Stocks have already started pricing in this scenario, and from individual names to the indices, they’re showing correction signals. A single asset can fool you. A whole series of assets moving in their classic chain can’t.

These signals will keep developing over the coming weeks. We may see bounces, drops and explosive moves either way, but for now the trend is clear.

The market is pricing in a correction.

My portfolio

In my previous job as a helicopter certifier, I learned that my actions have to back up my words. Think about it. Would you get on a helicopter with your family if the person responsible for it refused to get on because they didn’t trust it? I’m guessing you wouldn’t put your family on it in a million years, and you’d have a few not so nice words for that person.

What I mean is that I learned to prove things and to be the first to trust my own work. That’s why my money is where my mouth is.

I have $40,000 in cash in a public portfolio that I’m sharing here with you.

The plan for this portfolio is clear. Wait for the correction to play out over the coming weeks, then get into the sectors and assets with the brightest future ahead. I’ll share those assets and my entry points here, and I’ll let you know the day I buy.

But how do you know it won’t be a crash like 2000 or 2008?

Well, first of all, the moment the correction hits, every media outlet will say it’s the end of the economy and the stock market. Like always.

Among many other things, this is the main reason I believe that after a correction, 2027 and 2028 could be fantastic years.

Earlier I talked about inflation and the 2021 correction. That inflation wasn’t caused by wars or supply chains. They helped, sure, but the main reason was this.

The money supply grew 44% in just two years after Covid. Obviously, if you suddenly print almost half the money in circulation in two years, inflation and prices go through the roof.

We’re talking about $21.7 trillion printed since 1981, and $6.7 trillion of it in just two years. The total today is $23.3 trillion.

M2 isn’t just cash and it isn’t global liquidity. It counts all the spendable dollars in the US, cash plus bank deposits. That’s why it’s one of the best gauges of how much money central banks and governments are really pumping into the economy.

The cycle that never stops

So why will it be a correction? Because they’re not going to stop printing money. That will devalue the currency and cause major inflation, which will keep pushing markets higher.

And yes, along the way they can fall as much as they want, but they’ll recover. And without a doubt, the biggest risk for you right now is leaving your money in the bank.

Every day I share all the research and updates on everything I’ve learned over 11 years, the knowledge that has allowed me to make investing, which has always been my passion, my full time work.

Every week we’ll follow how the markets move and how this whole trend plays out. Follow me so you don’t miss a thing.

These articles take me a lot of time to analyze and research. I hope this one helped you see the market much more clearly and filter out the noise and narratives that always surround it. As a great investor once said,

“The market is the perfect machine for discounting what’s happening.”

That’s why I focus on understanding it, and that’s what I’ll share with you every day, to help you understand it too.

Cheers, investor.
J.C. Rodriguez

Natera is one of the fastest-growing healthcare companies of 2026, and yet most people have never heard of it. It’s also the biggest position in Stanley Druckenmiller’s portfolio, more than 16% of everything he holds. And Druckenmiller is one of the greatest investors in the world.

In this article I’ll walk you through everything I found: the parts that make me want to own it, the parts nobody likes to talk about, and the exact price I’m waiting for. Let’s take a look.

What Natera does, in plain words

Natera reads DNA from a simple blood draw.

When cells die, they leave tiny fragments of their DNA floating in your blood. Natera has spent twenty years learning how to find and read those fragments, and it sells tests built on that in three areas:

• Pregnancy (Panorama). A blood test from the mother that screens the baby for genetic conditions, with no needle anywhere near the baby. This is where Natera started, and it’s still the market leader.

• Organ transplants (Prospera). It detects whether a transplanted kidney, heart or lung is being rejected, before the patient feels anything.

• Cancer (Signatera). This is the one that matters. Signatera is the reason the stock has taken off.

Imagine someone has surgery for colon cancer. The tumor is removed, the scans come back clean, and the doctor says everything looks good. But one question remains: did a few cancer cells stay behind?

Signatera answers that question. Natera sequences the patient’s own tumor, builds a test designed only for that person, and then checks their blood every few months. If the cancer’s DNA shows up again, the test can catch it months before any scan would.

Two things make this a very good business:

1. It’s personal. Every test is built around one patient’s tumor. Once a patient starts with Signatera, they don’t switch.

2. It repeats. It’s not a single test. It’s one every few months, for years. Each patient becomes recurring revenue.

And it’s growing very fast. In the second quarter, Natera ran 296,700 cancer tests, 57% more than a year earlier. The average price of a Signatera test rose to around $1,275. And in May, the FDA approved it as a companion diagnostic for bladder cancer, the first approval of its kind in this market.

Natera is the clear leader. Signatera has more than 100 published studies behind it, and close to half of all oncologists in the US already order it.

Now that you know what Natera does and why it’s such a good business, let’s look at what the future holds, what the fundamentals say, and the price at which it becomes a great stock to buy.

What really moves Natera’s stock

Here’s something most people miss. Natera’s business doesn’t depend on the economy. Cancer doesn’t stop because there’s a recession, and patients keep needing their tests whatever the stock market does.

But Natera’s stock is a different story. It depends on one thing above all: how much money is flowing through the markets.

Look at what happened in the last few years:

• 2020–2021: the Fed printed money like never before. Natera went from around $25 to $129.

• 2022: the Fed started draining that money. Natera fell 80%, while the business kept growing the whole way.

• 2023–2026: money started flowing back into the markets, and Natera climbed all the way to a new high of $437.

Same company, same growing business. What changed was the money around it. That’s why I call Natera a liquidity stock: a company that is growing fast but doesn’t make a profit yet. Investors pay for its future, and they only pay generously when money is easy.

Where are we now?

Right now, the market is in a late phase of expansion. The economy is still healthy, companies are earning record profits, and money keeps flowing. That’s good news for a stock like Natera, and it could stay that way for a couple more years, as long as liquidity keeps coming in.

But late phases have a catch: corrections become more violent. The most speculative corners of the market are already showing cracks, and when money gets nervous, it sells first what it bought with the most enthusiasm. A stock that has gone up more than 70% in a year without profits is right at the front of that line.

So my view is simple: Natera still has the wind at its back for the next few years, but I expect a sharp correction first. And that correction is exactly what will give us the entry.

What I’m watching

Three signals tell me whether that wind is still blowing:

1. Liquidity: whether the money available in the system keeps rising or starts to shrink for several months in a row.

2. The Fed: in September it raised rates again, for the first time since 2023. One hike is a warning. If more follow, the wind starts to turn.

3. Credit: whether the extra interest paid by riskier companies starts to climb. That’s usually the first sign of fear.

As long as these three hold, any big drop in Natera is an opportunity. If they all turn at once, the drop could go much further than my entry, and I’ll wait.

Strong business, expensive habits

Now let’s look under the hood. Natera’s numbers tell two stories at the same time: a business that is growing like few others, and a company that is still paying for that growth in ways shareholders don’t always see.

Revenue is exploding

In 2019, Natera made $302 million. In 2025, it made $2.3 billion. And for 2026, management expects around $2.88 billion, after raising its guidance by $100 million in August.

That’s almost ten times more revenue in seven years, and it isn’t slowing down. In the second quarter, revenue grew 37.7%, and gross margin improved to 64.5%. In other words, for every $100 it sells, $64 is left after paying for the tests themselves.

Losses are shrinking, but they’re still there

Natera has never made money over a full year. But the trend is clearly heading in the right direction. Its losses peaked in 2022 at $548 million. Over the last twelve months they were $192 million, while revenue more than doubled.

And the balance sheet gives it all the time it needs: $1.09 billion in cash and only $80 million in debt. Natera is not going to run out of money.

The detail almost nobody mentions

You’ll read that Natera is now “cash flow positive”. Technically, it is. Over the last twelve months it generated $84 million of free cash flow.

But in that same period, it paid $381 million to its employees in shares instead of cash. That’s four and a half times more.

Why does that matter? Because every time a company creates new shares, your slice of the company gets smaller. Natera has done it in two ways: paying its people in stock, and selling new shares to raise cash in the years it was burning money. And it doesn’t buy back shares to make up for it.

The result: today there are twice as many Natera shares as in 2019.

Put it all together: revenue has grown almost 8 times since 2019, but each share now owns half the slice of the company it owned back then. The business has grown fantastically. The shareholder’s piece of it, a lot less.

It’s not a red flag on its own. Almost every fast-growing tech and biotech company does it. But it’s one of the things I check before buying anything, and here it doesn’t pass.

How Natera scores on my checklist

Every company I consider has to pass the same filter. Twelve questions, no exceptions. This is how Natera does:

Seven clear passes, three in the middle, two fails. The business itself is excellent: a real moat, pricing power, customers who stay for years, and a balance sheet with no worries. Where it falls short is in how it treats its shareholders. Insiders sold $379 million in the last twelve months without buying a single share, and the share count keeps growing.

That’s a quality company, not a perfect one. And that matters for two things: the price I’m willing to pay, and how much of my portfolio it deserves. A company that passes every test can earn a big position. One that fails two of them gets a smaller one, bought at a price that leaves room for mistakes.

The competition is getting serious

Natera leads this market, and by a lot. But the giants have noticed.

• Abbott, one of the biggest healthcare companies in the world, bought Exact Sciences in March. Exact has its own personalized cancer test, and now it has Abbott’s sales force behind it.

• Tempus bought Personalis in July, adding one of the most sensitive tests on the market to its huge network of oncologists.

• Guardant Health sells a test that doesn’t need the tumor. It’s easier to order but less precise, and so far it hasn’t caught up.

Natera’s lead is real: years of studies, the first FDA approval of its kind, and half of US oncologists already using it. But two years ago it competed with small companies. Now it competes with Abbott. That’s a different game.

The part nobody likes to talk about

If I tell you a company is great, I also have to tell you its history. And Natera’s has some dark chapters:

• 2018: it paid $11 million to settle US Department of Justice allegations over how it billed its pregnancy test.

• 2022: The New York Times reported that, for some rare conditions, its prenatal test’s positive results were wrong more than 80% of the time. Natera later settled the class action for $8.25 million.

• March 2022: short seller Hindenburg Research accused it of deceptive billing toward doctors, insurers and expectant mothers. The stock fell 33% that day. Five days later, a jury found Natera had made false advertising claims about its transplant test.

• 2024: another jury ordered it to pay Guardant $292.5 million for false advertising against its cancer test. Natera has appealed.

What do I take from all this? Natera has sold its tests very aggressively, too aggressively more than once. $292 million won’t sink a company with $1.09 billion in cash. But it says something about the culture, and it’s a risk you have to accept with your eyes open.

It already prices in a lot of future

So why am I not buying? Because a great company and a great investment are not the same thing. The difference is the price you pay.

At $392, Natera is worth around $57 billion. That’s almost 20 times the revenue it expects for all of 2026, for a company that still doesn’t make a profit.

That can be justified if everything goes right for years. But at 20 times sales, the market doesn’t forgive. A slower quarter, a cut in what Medicare pays, or a strong move from Abbott, and the stock can lose a third of its value in a few weeks.

The price I’m waiting for

This is Natera’s weekly chart. For years, the stock moved inside a long channel. It broke above it, came back to test it in 2025, and from there it took off. This summer it went almost vertical: from around $200 to $437 in a few months.

Moves like this rarely hold. They usually come back to test the zone they broke out from. And in Natera’s case, two things line up there:

1. The top of its old channel. It used to be the ceiling, and now it’s the support. Today it sits around $165.

2. Its 200-week average. It’s at $137 and rising fast, getting closer to that same zone every week.

When an old ceiling and the 200-week average meet in the same place, that’s the kind of support I trust most.

$165, that’s my entry, within a zone between $150 and $175.

I know it looks very far from $392: it’s a 58% fall. But this same stock fell 80% in 2022 with the business growing the whole way. And at $165, Natera would be worth around 8 times its sales instead of 20.

So, is Natera stock a buy?

Not yet. Natera is one of those companies that make you want to buy right away: a product that saves lives, a clear leader, revenue growing almost 40%, and one of the best investors in the world with his biggest bet on it.

But the best businesses aren’t always the best investments. Not at any price, and not at any moment in the cycle.

So here’s my plan:

• I’m not buying now. My portfolio is still in cash, waiting for the correction I’ve been describing since August.

• If Natera reaches the $150–175 zone, I’ll buy in steps, not all at once. Nobody catches the exact bottom.

• It will be a smaller position than my best ideas, around 3–5% of the portfolio. A company that fails two of my tests doesn’t get a big one, however good the business is.

• Before each buy, I’ll check that the story still holds: Signatera growing above 40%, Medicare still paying what it pays today, and the Guardant appeal not turning into something bigger.

• If the business breaks, I won’t buy, however cheap it gets. A falling price is only an opportunity if the company is still the same.

Every week, I share the best opportunities I find in great companies, along with an update on where the market stands and what to expect in the weeks ahead. Subscribe so you don’t miss a thing.

Good luck out there in the markets, investor. Patience, a cool head, and decisive action.

All the best,

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Europe is a region that had everything it needed to be home to the best countries in the world. For years it had cheap oil from Russia, defense from the United States and raw materials from China. And yet, instead of betting on growth and competitiveness to build the best group of countries on the planet, it chose pointless regulation and bureaucracy, and welfare policies. I support welfare, but not the way it’s been done: most of the time these policies were created to win votes and nothing more, knowing full well they couldn’t afford them.

A young person doesn’t need help to buy a house. They need a decent salary and a strong economy to grow in, so they can earn enough to afford one, whether by starting a business or working for someone else.

And that house shouldn’t be an object of speculation. It should have a normal price, affordable for anyone, because having your first home, having a place to live, should be a basic, universal right. Yet young people in Europe can’t start a family or find a place to live. A monkey in the jungle has both, and young Europeans don’t. But then they fill their mouths calling themselves first-world, civilized countries, leaders of freedom and rights. Apparently rights are only for the old. For the young, a salary that isn’t even enough to live on.

Now things are changing fast. Let’s look at what lies ahead for Europeans and their benchmark index.

The Euro Stoxx 50 in trouble

There’s something I’ve learned in my eleven years in the market: the narrative always comes after the market. That’s why I always use the market itself to see what’s going on. The market prices in what’s happening in the world perfectly, long before it shows up anywhere else.

As I write this, signals across every market, not just Europe, point to trouble and a correction. I decided to write this article because Europe is, by far, the part of the world where the most problems have shown up at once, and its index is already talking.

First, a bearish divergence appeared on its daily chart. That alone triggered the first drop, down to the area of its daily average.

Then, on its weekly chart, the MACD crossed down, signaling that a correction is coming in the next few weeks. The most normal outcome would be for that correction to reach its 200-week average, which lines up with a long-term channel and support.

On its monthly chart, it has also flashed a divergence on the RSI, and the MACD has started to turn. If it crosses down in the coming weeks, it will be a strong sign of trouble for this index.

And as if that weren’t enough, it left a shooting star candle on the monthly chart, already confirmed by the next candle.

I want to be clear: few times in my eleven years in the markets have I seen so many warning signs together in a single index.

The French problem

All of this comes at a very difficult time for France, one of Europe’s leading countries. Rising bond yields are raising doubts about France’s ability to pay its debt. Its index, as always, warned before the narrative reached the market.

And I want what I’m about to say to be very clear. The narrative always comes after the market. What a coincidence that, just as the index sits at the upper resistance of two long-term rising channels, the market narrative suddenly picks up that France has fiscal problems. Not a year ago, not six months ago. Now, right when it reaches the top of its channel.

Throughout my life I’ve learned not to believe in coincidences. This narrative arrives at exactly the right moment. Let’s look at the drop I expect, and at the real problems these indices are pricing in and that Europe is facing.

Winter is coming

For many years, Europe enjoyed cheap Russian oil. That’s over now. Nord Stream 2 was blown up, and the war in Ukraine ended any attempt to improve things.

On top of that, Saudi Arabia and the Middle East are, coincidentally, suffering Houthi attacks on their refineries. That leaves the United States as the only safe oil supplier, and it recently warned it could ban diesel exports, leaving Europe without fuel at its worst possible moment.

And this comes at a time when oil and diesel are soaring, with no sign of coming down. Personally, the oil chart scares me, because if it reaches its target, the problems it could cause for the global economy would be severe. My own wallet included: my car runs on diesel, and on top of that it’s French. Worst purchase ever.

What to expect from European indices?

Honestly, anyone who tells you they know what will happen is lying. What I can tell you is the most likely outcome and what the market is signaling.

For the Euro Stoxx 50, I expect a drop to its average and its long-term support. Things would have to get very bad for it to lose that level.

If it did, the next support would be its monthly average, around 4,000. That would mean a drop of about 40%. It’s not the scenario I’m considering, but I’ll keep watching as things unfold.

For the other indices, like the CAC 40, I expect a drop to their average.

If it lost that, the next support would be its long-term channel, around 3,500, which would mean a 58% drop. I see this scenario as highly unlikely right now. A more contained correction is what I’d expect, and it’s my base case.

Why is this happening now?

Europe is in a late phase of the cycle, typically marked by frequent drops and corrections, followed by rallies when central banks step in to print money.

And this is my final conclusion. This narrative of a French crisis, and all the signals the market is sending, come at a time when every European country carries enormous debt. On top of that, they have fiscally irresponsible politicians who will never do what it takes to cut the deficit. What does that mean?

That they’ll use this correction and the French narrative to have the ECB come to the rescue, injecting more liquidity into the system and kicking the can down the road, once again. More money printing, more inflation and more currency debasement, which will push food and housing prices even higher, squeezing Europeans even more, especially the young, who already have it far too hard.

I’ll keep tracking how all of this unfolds every week. I hope you enjoyed it. Follow me so you don’t miss the next analysis.

All my strength to every European, especially the young. Investing in hard assets is the only long-term answer to the currency debasement that’s coming.

Cheers, investor.

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To pull it off, I studied the sector inside out and got the certifications and licenses I needed to work in it. This article pulls together everything I learned, and which companies I’m watching to buy, because they’re undisputed leaders with a real competitive edge. Let’s take a look.

The future of cybersecurity

Probably one of the most promising sectors over the next few years. Why? For three main reasons, ones I saw with my own eyes every single day:

1. The cybersecurity job market has a problem. Only 74% of open positions get filled. And it’s not because people don’t want to work in it. The demand for qualified people is just insatiable, because the sector keeps growing, and it’s expected to grow at 9.1% a year through 2030, from $228 billion in 2025 to $352 billion.

   

   This means most of the talent that used to be in other sectors is actively moving into cybersecurity, creating an even bigger market of opportunities and future growth.

2. Artificial intelligence directly amplifies and powers this sector. And not only because of more sophisticated attacks, which seems like the obvious answer, but for the exact opposite reason. I learned that most attacks on companies don’t happen because of the code. They happen because of people.

   A company’s weakest point is its workers. From burned-out people selling data to people falling for email or phone scams, the biggest attacks happen because humans fail.

   Here’s an interesting fact I learned: last year, Jaguar Land Rover suffered the biggest attack in its history, costing the UK economy an estimated £1.9 billion (about $2.5 billion). The cause? Reportedly, a phishing attack that got an employee to hand over their credentials to the attackers, who were pretending to be IT support. From there they escalated privileges and kept the factories shut down for five weeks.

   

   What I want you to understand is that cybersecurity doesn’t only have a future at the highest levels, solving the most complex problems. Over the next few years, we’re going to see a massive number of attacks aimed at small and mid-sized businesses, and at regular working people too, with things like AI identity theft, calls using the voice of a family member or someone you know, and other techniques that keep getting better and better.

3. We’re heading towards an increasingly digital world. The cloud, artificial intelligence, agentic AI, quantum computing that could break today’s encryption. Everything we’re moving towards gives cybersecurity a huge boost. The more digital the economy and the world become, the more money will have to go into this sector to keep that economy safe.

   Now that we’ve seen the promising future this sector has ahead of it, let’s look at the best companies, with a short analysis of each one. If you want me to share the full fundamental and technical analysis of each one, let me know in the comments.

   3. Cloudflare

   For me, by far the most promising company in the sector. I put it third because the stock is a lot more volatile than the next two, and it’s not as established as the others. But in terms of long-term upside, it’s without a doubt the best.

   Cloudflare runs one of the biggest networks in the world, with a presence in more than 330 cities. A huge chunk of the Internet passes through it before reaching the website or app it’s going to. On top of that network, it sells four businesses:

• Application services (where it all started): making websites load faster (CDN) and protecting them from attacks (DDoS, firewalls, bot control).

• Zero Trust / SASE (Cloudflare One): it replaces companies’ VPNs and office firewalls. This is where it competes with Zscaler and Palo Alto.

• Developer platform (Workers): lets you run code, store data and use AI models directly on its network. It’s their bet to become a full cloud. In the second quarter almost 2 million developers signed up, more than in all of 2025 (1.5 million).

• AI and the “Internet of agents”: it controls which AI bots can read each website and charges them for it. It started by charging for every read (Pay Per Crawl). Now it’s replacing that with Pay Per Use, which pays the publisher when its content is used in an AI answer.

  As you can see, a company perfectly positioned for the future. Now let’s get into the numbers.

  

  

It’s a high-growth company that, so far, hasn’t let the market down. Its biggest problems come down to two things. One, the market has already priced in a lot of future growth. Two, something that’s a problem but also our solution: volatility.

Over the years, Cloudflare has gone through drops of up to 82%, only to recover and deliver extraordinary returns. Taking advantage of that volatility, this is the price I’m watching.

$160, that’s my entry. I know it looks like a long way down from where it is now, but it’s nothing compared to other drops it’s had. Obviously, a drop like this won’t happen on its own. As you’ll see in some of my other articles, cracks are starting to show all across the US tech sector, so if that correction does come, that’s the price I’m watching to get in.

2. CrowdStrike

This company sits somewhere in the middle between Cloudflare’s explosive growth and our number 1. It’s one of the most important companies in the cybersecurity sector and, without a doubt, the market has already noticed.

It’s the leading endpoint security platform, meaning it protects laptops and servers. From there, it sells modules to protect the cloud and user identities, a SIEM to centralize the security logs of the whole company, and managed services. Everything runs on a single agent, Falcon.

The business is more mature and more profitable than Cloudflare's, it generates real cash and it's accelerating again. But after doubling in a year, the stock trades at almost the same multiples. What you need to watch is whether net new ARR keeps growing above 30%. This would be my buy price.

Since there’s no clear structure on the chart, the safest and most tested approach over my 11 years of investing is to buy at the weekly moving average. As long as the fundamentals keep saying it’s a quality company, of course.

1. Palo Alto Networks

By far the most established company and the leader of the sector. Over the years it’s delivered lower returns than the other two, but in exchange it offers huge stability and quality.

It’s the biggest “platform” cybersecurity company. It sells firewalls and network security, Cortex (an AI-driven security operations center and cloud security) and now Idira, the identity security that comes from CyberArk. Its strategy is for customers to buy everything from a single vendor.

The market has also priced in a lot of growth for this stock, so these would be my two entry points. The first one is the resistance of a rising channel going back to 2020, which has now turned into support. The second one is its 200-week moving average.

Again, for the price to get there, we'd need a correction, and in this case, the sector leader is already showing the same signal that's appearing in companies like Google, Nvidia or Broadcom.

The run-up it’s had over the last few months is coming to an end, and that’s where the opportunity I’m waiting for to get in will come from.

As you’ve seen, cybersecurity is a booming niche for the years ahead, and it has three great quality companies to capture all the money that’s going to flow into the sector, which is expected to reach around $352 billion a year by 2030.

I hope you enjoyed this article and found it useful. Over the next few days I’ll be posting more analysis of the companies I’m watching to buy, so follow me to get them and not miss any.

And if you want a more detailed analysis of any of them, or you’d like us to look at another company you have in mind, let me know in the comments. I read every one.

Cheers, fellow investor,
J.C. Rodríguez

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And I want to be honest with you from the start, these cracks don’t point to an AI-bubble collapse like the one we saw in 2000, no matter what many people want you to believe, because they profit from your attention and your fear.

What’s actually happening in the markets is that everything is lining up for a sharp, deep correction, the kind that scares everyone and floods the headlines with panic, and the kind where, once everyone has capitulated, the market snaps back hard.

Depending on how ugly things get over the next few months, those declines could be around 50% for many of the big names currently leading the Nasdaq 100.

Let’s walk through them clearly and simply, without FOMO or fear, so you can see how to take advantage of what’s coming and build wealth that keeps growing no matter how the world changes.

Cracks in Paradise

Since 2022, we’ve seen a massive rally in the markets, led in particular by semiconductors. As in any good bubble, the first things to surge are the companies that directly benefit from building the new technology.

As we can see from the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), one of the largest and best-known benchmarks in the sector, semiconductors have surged with extreme strength, creating a pattern very similar to the one in 2000.

When something rises this fast and this hard, the correction usually comes just as fast and just as hard. As I write this, the index is down 20%, but, as its own chart and those of other major names in the sector show, the worst may still be ahead. Let’s take a look.

Nvidia, the Queen of the Market, in Trouble

This stock has been, by far, the most famous of the last decade, because everything that’s happened, from the crypto boom to cloud computing, and now AI, has positioned it as one of the highest-returning companies in the world and, for many, the undisputed queen of the sector.

Nvidia’s chart has just flashed, alongside many other assets in its sector, one of the clearest signals that a correction is coming. It’s a bearish divergence on the weekly chart, and its track record of accuracy is very high, so high that Nvidia flashed this exact same signal a couple of years ago, and the drop that followed was 45%.

As you can see, a divergence like this can end up producing a result very similar to the previous one, which would mean a 41% drop for Nvidia.

Google

Another great company with excellent returns, one that dominates the internet and has established itself as one of the biggest hyperscalers in the world.

As you can see below, the exact same pattern as Nvidia’s is repeating, and at the exact same time.

The same divergence, and, coincidentally, almost the same drop to its next major support level. A projected 45.6% decline for Google.

Broadcom

This company is another big winner from the computing boom, which has positioned it as a leader in the sector. In fact, since its 2022 low, it’s up 1,100%.

Once again, and it keeps getting worse with every asset, another bearish divergence has shown up at the same time, signaling a new correction.

This one’s support level isn’t as clear as with the others, but the drop for Broadcom would be somewhere between 45% and 52%.

The Looming Crisis

As so often happens in life, when things are already going badly, they suddenly get even worse.

On top of all these signals showing up in the market, there’s an oil crisis breaking out as I write this.

The price hasn’t broken out to the upside yet, but every move the US has made has been aimed at causing this very crisis.

For those who haven’t read this week’s research, I’ll explain quickly.

The US has intentionally engineered an oil crisis that will hit European countries especially hard, as well as other parts of the world.

The goal is simple: pull in as much money as they can into the US, trigger a sharp, decisive drop in the stock markets to clear out excess and set the stage for 2027, and drive down bond yields to keep financing their debt.

Whether it’s their allies, or you and I, who end up paying more every time you go to fill up at the pump, they couldn’t care less. I’ll leave both full articles here for you to read whenever you like:

-Why is an oil crisis coming at the end of 2026?

-The Missing Piece of the 2026 Oil Crisis Just Surfaced

The Decision

Weekly divergences that almost never appear are suddenly showing up all at once in the biggest names leading the stock market. Another coincidence, that we happen to be standing at the doorstep of an oil crisis, one that would trigger the very drop the market has been warning about for weeks.

While the media will all say they have no idea how this happened, it’s clear this was planned, as always.

Far from cursing the heavens over the injustice of this world, we’re going to do something better, we’re going to take advantage of the situation.

The decision is clear. With my $40,000 portfolio, I’m going to wait for these cracks to widen and spread, and for the correction to fully play out in the markets. And when everyone is screaming in panic, I’ll buy at support levels.

Every week, I’ll be here with you watching it unfold, with my own money on the line. If you want to follow how this develops through the rest of 2026, you can find all my research in the chat.

Good luck out there in the markets, investor. Patience, a cool head, and decisive action.

All the best,

Why would they want a worldwide oil crisis right before midterms?

If you’re new here, I’ll leave you the article where I explain how the United States is triggering the coming oil crisis:

-Why is an oil crisis coming at the end of 2026?

There was one last piece I was missing to make it all fit. Let’s look at it.

The global oil crisis

As we saw in the previous investigation, Bessent, the Trump administration, and Kevin Warsh have objectives to meet, and an oil crisis would fulfill them perfectly, while also pulling even more capital into the United States and making the rest of the world poorer.

If everyone loses 5 and I lose 1, I’m the one who wins, even though we all lose.

I won’t repeat everything I laid out in that article, so let’s go straight to how the missing piece fits.

My question was:

If an oil crisis was coming, why cause it before the midterms?

It didn’t make sense. I thought they’d wait until after the midterms to set it off, until the last piece of the puzzle showed up today.

“Trump: If the Democrats win the midterm elections, we will face an economic recession.”

I’ve only just started publishing, and I know a lot of you don’t know me yet. But if there’s one thing I’m good at in life, at the expense of plenty of others I’m terrible at, like painting or anything that requires even a hint of feeling, it’s understanding why someone says something. Connecting the dots that look invisible at first glance, and knowing exactly what interests sit behind their words.

In this case, such a short sentence implies so much that, to keep this from getting too long, I’ll explain it quickly and simply.

The masterstroke

During these months, while everyone was saying they had no idea what they were doing and that it was one mistake after another, the United States has followed a clear plan. To see it quickly: first the objectives, then the move they’ve made up to today and the next steps they’re going to take.

Objectives

1. The Trump administration must win the war against China at all costs and remain the world’s dominant power. As Trump said a couple of days ago, whoever dominates AI will win the war. Well, to dominate AI you need data centers; to have data centers you need to attract as much capital as possible to the United States; and to attract that capital you need very bullish stock markets that pull in foreign money to fund the leading companies in the sector, the ones that will build the infrastructure and IP needed to dominate it for the next 20 years.

2. Bessent, the Treasury Secretary, needs interest rates as low as possible. He has an enormous, exponential wall of debt, and a rate hike could make the house of cards the economy has become blow up in his face.

3. Kevin Warsh, Fed Chair, needs to appear independent, and I say appear, because as we can see he has little of it. The United States needs low rates, but Warsh can’t cut them with inflation this high without losing credibility and independence.

The plan

1. The first thing the United States did was directly stress the market by triggering a war with Iran, hoping they would close the Strait of Hormuz. When Iran closed it and then prepared to reopen it, the U.S. made sure to keep it closed themselves to keep stressing the markets.

2. The United States started intervening in the oil price, holding a fictitious paper price. That’s how they’ve kept it all these months, actively below $120.

3. In recent weeks, while the world’s oil reserves are emptying, the Iran war has openly gotten worse, with larger attacks and escalations. At the same time, the Houthis, coincidence of coincidences, have started attacking the world’s second-largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, hitting and destroying refineries and oil tankers. When Saudi Arabia asked the U.S. for help defending itself, they, another coincidence, said no, and three days later struck a deal with the Houthis so they would only attack Saudi Arabia and not the United States.

4. Where we are now: diesel has already broken its all-time high, oil is back around $100, and every piece is in place for the crisis. Now they just have to pull the trigger.

5. On one side they will restrict physical oil supply, worsening the war with Iran and, possibly, cutting exports to the world or finding something similar to finally stress the physical market. At the same time they will stop intervening to the downside in the paper market. The perfect storm for oil and diesel prices to explode.

6. The world will be plunged into an energy crisis that will send inflation soaring. The United States doesn’t care: someone else will pick up the bill.

7. That crisis will cause a fast, brutal stock-market drop that will wipe out the bulls, wipe out the leveraged players, and compress the expensive multiples the market is trading on today.

8. When everyone is screaming in panic, the headlines are full of alarmism, and the market is packed with bears, that’s when oil will peak, and with it inflation. Markets, which price this in six to twelve months ahead, will put in a bottom. From there you have the perfect setup for an ultra-bullish 2027 that inflates the speculative AI bubble they need to fund their data centers.

9. Meanwhile, the stock-market drop will give the bond market a breather, which will keep Bessent happy. As for Warsh, he’ll have the perfect excuse to say something is breaking in the economy, cut rates, and fire up the printing press injecting liquidity, without losing credibility and while looking independent. He might not cut: in the 2000 bubble rates went up and the bubble inflated anyway. That will depend on bonds, but that’s another story.

As you can see, an oil crisis maximizes America’s objectives. It makes its allies poorer, it doesn’t suffer the crisis the way everyone else does, it gets lower rates and bond yields to finance the debt, and all the world’s capital will flow into U.S. markets in 2027 to fund the bubble and win the war they’re so hungry for.

The countries likely to be hit hardest are the European ones. As of today, this has already started.

The closing piece

The piece I was missing, the one we saw earlier, was when they would set that crisis off. Until now I thought it would be after the midterms. But seeing everything they’ve already set in motion, and that they’re going to lose the midterms, the play is clear: once people vote and the Democrats win, they’ll let it all explode and blame them for a crisis they designed themselves.

The decision

With my public $40,000 portfolio, that you can see here, I know exactly what I’m going to do: wait patiently. Wait for their plan to play out, for everyone to scream in panic, and when it looks like the end, buy the assets that will benefit from the 2027 bubble.

Be careful, investors: fill your tanks, get your portfolios ready, keep a cool head, and use this plan to build wealth that grows even as the world changes.

I’ll be here every week beside you in the markets and in this increasingly noisy, polarized, and dangerous world, trying to offer an independent voice and help you however I can.

To follow everything that happens each week, join the chat.

Good luck, investor.

I’d like to be honest with you from the start. While the market narrative says the surge in oil is the result of a string of mistakes and blunders by the US, the truth is that it has been a planned, coordinated move all the way up to today, designed to bring us to the very brink of a global oil crisis that will strengthen the US position and allow them to achieve the goals they’ve set for themselves.

To understand why they want to cause an oil crisis worse than the one we already have, let me introduce you to the main players and their goals.

1. Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary. His only goal is to keep printing money like there’s no tomorrow so the debt wall doesn’t come crashing down on him. In a world where debt is going exponential, and money printing right along with it, he needs low interest rates to buy a little more time for the house of cards today’s economy has become.

2. The Donald Trump administration. Its main goal is to win the war against China and remain the dominant power, whatever it takes. When it comes to beating them, I’ll quote what the president said a few days ago, “Whoever dominates AI will win the war”. Well, to dominate AI you need to build out all the infrastructure, and to build all that infrastructure you need ultra-bullish markets that draw all the world’s money into the companies putting up those data centres. That’s why this administration’s overriding goal is for stock markets to be ultra-bullish until 2028.

3. Kevin Warsh, Chair of the Fed. His main goal is very simple, and it’s etched into the charter the Fed was founded on more than a century ago. To be independent. Even if everyone says he was handpicked by Trump, the Fed has to remain independent, at least as far as the public is concerned.

What’s more, our three players have had close ties for years. So much so that Bessent and Warsh meet for breakfast every week.

Now that we know who they are, let’s look at the playbook they’re going to follow to cause an oil crisis, how it could affect your portfolio and your life, and how you can not only protect yourself but actually turn it to your advantage.

1. The oil crisis of their dreams

The first thing to understand is that an oil crisis doesn’t hurt everyone equally. While you and I foot the bill every time we fill up and curse a world that keeps getting darker, there are other people who either couldn’t care less about rising prices because they have more money and power than 99% of the planet, or who are outright profiting from them.

Geopolitics works exactly the same way. The US is the world’s largest oil producer. A producing country doesn’t suffer the consequences of rising oil prices. If things get out of hand, it uses its own oil and sells what it doesn’t need at whatever price the market dictates. Countries in Latin America and Europe, on the other hand, are importers, and they bear the full brunt of it.

So an oil crisis will only benefit the US, because while it runs on its own oil, it’s everyone else who foots the bill. And even if it did get hurt too, it would be the one hurt least. If everyone loses 5 and I lose 1, I’m the one who wins, even though we’ve all lost.

And as we’ve seen, the Trump administration is openly at war with China, and if winning that war means squeezing money out of its allies, it obviously will. In fact, it already is.

2. How they’re going to fool everyone else

We’ve already seen that they mainly need two things, lower interest rates and an ultra-bullish market until 2028.

Do you know what would give them both at once?

That’s right, an oil crisis. And on top of that, a crisis the US wouldn’t suffer as much as everyone else, and would even benefit from.

I know what you’re thinking. How is an oil crisis supposed to make stocks go up?

To launch an ultra-bullish leg in stocks, the kind that ends up in the history books, 1999-2000 style, you need just one thing. A fast, deep drop that flushes out all the excess, brings multiples down and leaves everyone positioned against the market, so you can then unleash that almost exponential rally all the way to 2028.

You can’t create a market that bullish from current positioning. Multiples are extremely stretched and people are already extremely bullish, with record levels of leverage. To flush out all that excess you need a fast, clean drop, and an oil crisis is exactly what sets one off.

3. The masterstroke

We’ve already seen that Bessent wants low rates to finance the debt, and that Warsh wants to stay independent. Once again, an oil crisis is exactly what they need to achieve both goals.

The first thing Warsh will do is raise interest rates, to project that image of Fed independence, while Bessent and the Trump administration play along by saying publicly that rates need to come down.

At this first stage, one of them has already achieved his goal. The Fed looks independent. And I say “looks” because it really isn’t.

Now it’s time to engineer the oil crisis on a global scale. Over the last few weeks, and even the last few days, they’ve been taking important steps to create it.

1. They haven’t backed Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s biggest oil exporters, against the Houthis, who have destroyed major Saudi refineries and ships. That has tightened the market even further.

2. The war with Iran is worse than ever. And over the coming days, the administration will probably make things worse on purpose, threatening or outright launching bigger attacks, or even a ground invasion.

3. The US has clearly been intervening in the paper oil market since the war began. What would happen if all of the above suddenly came together and, on top of that, they stopped intervening?

If I restrict supply with the Iran war and the Houthis, and then let the paper market explode, I’ve got the perfect oil crisis.

Once the global crisis is underway, the rest of the plan takes care of itself.

Stock markets fall hard and fast. That eases the pressure on bonds and their yields, which benefits Bessent and the public debt.

When the time comes, once inflation cools off or something big breaks in the economy, out will come the miraculous independent Fed, with the printer plugged in, cutting rates and pumping money into the markets.

That will set off an ultra-bullish 2027, with markets going from massive fear to extreme greed. And whatever happens in 2028, well, that’s another story.

The Decision

As you can see, all the pieces are set and everything is in place for these people to achieve their goals. An oil crisis will cause a fast, hard drop in the markets, which will then cause them to explode massively higher in 2027, drawing all the world’s capital into the US so they can fund their data centres, dominate AI for years to come and, in doing so, try to win the war with China.

At the same time, Bessent will finally get his low rates and Warsh will look independent, even though he never has been. In the market’s eyes, he’ll step in to cut rates because the economy needs saving, not because he isn’t independent. What many won’t see is that he’s saving it from a crisis they created themselves.

Since you and I don’t have billions or power in high places, I’ll tell you the decision I’m going to make with my own money, in my $40,000 public portfolio.

The decision is clear. Wait for the crisis to arrive, don’t buy into the narrative the markets and the media will be pushing as it unfolds, wait for the stock market to fall, and when everyone is panicking, when everyone is saying the global economy is finished, when everyone is saying we’re heading for stagflation and this is just like 1970, step in and buy the right assets at a good price, to make the most of the 2027 bull market.

Extreme patience and decisive action.

I hope this article has helped you better understand the world and the markets we’re immersed in. Join the chat to get research like this every week, along with the moves I’m making in my portfolio. You’ll also be able to ask me anything you like. See you there.

Good luck, investor.

All of it is in cash, still, waiting. And I know that, to a lot of people, sounds strange. You open a portfolio to invest, not to watch.

But investing well is, above all, knowing when not to.

Let me show you the whole map. Data, no hype, and every chart I look at myself.

By the end, you will understand why this portfolio first waits for an entry window between September and December 2026, and how you can prepare, protect your portfolio, and take advantage of that window to build wealth that keeps growing even as the world changes.

Is the market sick, or just one corner of it?

Just one corner. And this is the first thing to understand, because almost everyone gets it wrong. For months you’ve been hearing that “there’s an AI bubble” and that “this is going to blow up”.

But when you get down to the data, the economy is far from broken: unemployment is at 4.2% and falling, not rising; the companies in the index earned 20% more than last year, with record margins; credit is as calm as it has been in years; and inflation is rolling back down fast, faster than almost anyone expected. None of that is an economy on the edge of the abyss.

The bubble, if you want to call it that, is in one single place: semiconductors.

Something has happened there that is worth looking at with respect, because we’ve seen it before.

That chart costs me a bit of sleep, I won’t lie to you. It’s the same index, twenty-five years apart, walking a very similar path.

It does not mean it’s going to fall 83% again. Two cases don’t make a rule, and I’ll come back to this at the end, because it has a second, far more optimistic reading.

But it does mean this corner of the market has run a very long way, very fast, and those things rarely cool down gently.

I said two cases don’t make a rule. Here is a third, and this one is not from a history book: it happened this summer.

That is the KOSPI, the South Korean index. Its two biggest companies, Samsung and SK Hynix, make the memory chips the whole artificial intelligence build-out runs on, so when the chip trade moves, Korea moves first and moves hardest.

And look at what it did. It climbed the entire textbook —takeoff, enthusiasm, euphoria— and topped on 19 June, right at the point where everyone starts explaining why this time is different.

Six weeks later it was 43.9% lower.

Now it looks like it’s bouncing, and everyone says the worst is over. It still worries me a lot, because these moves are set up to leave people long and trapped, and then slam it violently lower.

And why does a single sector worry me?

A big problem is building in the semiconductor sector. A sector that has led indices as important as the Nasdaq 100. A sector that, as we can see, is already signalling that a serious correction is coming.

I firmly believe that if that correction arrives, it will drag the indices down with it, hard and fast.

So far the chips have corrected and the indices have barely noticed, because of something called sector rotation: the money leaves one part of the index and moves into another, so the index itself holds up.

When that rotation runs out and semiconductors keep falling, the index will feel it with full force.

And I’m not imagining it. There are already cracks. In the three big names in artificial intelligence, the price kept rising while the force pushing it was running out.

Notice a detail that is no coincidence: the tops didn’t arrive on the same day. Nvidia topped on 11 May, Alphabet on the 18th, Broadcom on 1 June.

It wasn’t a one-session scare. It was a sequence that started on the inside, in the individual stocks, and worked its way out towards the indices, week by week. That is exactly how the big rotations begin.

And who else is seeing this?

Big money. And this is where it stops being my opinion and becomes a fact anyone can check. Every week, the United States regulator publishes who is positioned in the futures market and on which side. And what it says right now is one of the most striking things I’ve seen in years.

The big funds are loaded with downside positions while ordinary people buy hand over fist. The distance between the two has never been this wide in four and a half years.

That has an ugly name: distribution. Those in the know passing the paper to those who arrive late.

An important piece of honesty: a good part of that selling by the big players is hedging, not bearish bets. Many funds are long stocks and sell the index to protect themselves.

Even so, an extreme is an extreme, and the distance from the small investor is real.

And why September-December specifically?

The rest of the assets are already lining up for a tense scenario around those dates, in the classic chain: the dollar rises, bond yields rise, and that puts pressure on equities and on the most speculative corners.

The bond matters more than it seems, and here is the mechanism: when what the bond pays rises and what companies pay doesn’t, the reward for taking equity risk shrinks. And right now that reward is at lows.

And the most nervous of the lot, as always, is bitcoin: the asset that rises most when there is too much money in the world and falls most when it starts running short. It has already lost an important support.

The two lines at the bottom are the whole story. The golden one is people’s mood, which has gone from fear to greed in a fortnight. The white one is the money: every bet currently live in bitcoin futures, counted in bitcoin and not in dollars, which is the only way that number doesn’t lie to you.

When the price rises and the live bets fall, buyers are not arriving: sellers are leaving. That is short covering, not money coming in.

A rally paid for by closing shorts ends the day the shorts run out.

It isn’t telling me a date. It is telling me that the most speculative corner of the market is running on mood instead of money, and that is exactly the state in which things break.

While everyone says BTC is heading back to all-time highs, and everyone is euphoric because it’s up 40% in a week, I’m still worried.

Worried because I know these moves firsthand. Worried because they don’t end well. These moves are designed to trap people in long positions, thinking it’s already going back to highs.

Once they have everyone in, they deliver one last, very violent move that makes everyone capitulate.

That’s when the strong hands start accumulating, while everyone else says BTC is finished, and that’s when it actually puts in a real bottom.

For all of the above, I believe this move in BTC is part of everything that’s being set up, and that’s why I’m asking you to be careful with this kind of move.

The worst for BTC may still be ahead.

So what’s actually happening in the world right now?

Throughout this article we have looked at different assets. All of them are pointing to exactly the same thing: they are lining up at the same time for a correction.

When everything is telling you the same story, at the same time and in the same window, the sensible thing is to listen, not to follow the crowd.

Now add the macro backdrop we are living through. An unresolved conflict with Iran that could send oil much higher and force the Fed’s hand to hike rates.

A yen carry trade that the Bank of Japan has decided to start unwinding, raising rates to defend its currency.

And a midterm calendar where, statistically, September and October are the worst months for equities, with October often being the month when the market puts in its bottom.

And how will I know if it’s a correction or something worse?

That’s the million-dollar question, and the honest answer is: it will depend on how complicated things get along the way.

A correction is a healthy fall that clears excesses within a trend that is still alive. A bear market is a deeper wound.

The difference between the two isn’t decided by a chart: it’s decided by the data from the real economy.

It turns into something worse if…

• Credit starts tightening all at once.

• Oil stays above $100.

• The dollar and rates keep rising unchecked.

• One of the system’s pipes breaks, like the yen carry trade.

It stays a correction if…

• Credit stays calm, with no tension between banks.

• Unemployment stays low and people keep their jobs.

• Company earnings are not revised downwards.

• Oil and the tension with Iran calm down.

The more oil, the dollar and rates rise, the more dangerous a bear market becomes and the less likely a clean correction. Today, as I write this, the balance tilts towards a correction: the economy is holding. But there’s one question I keep turning over and don’t want to hide from you, because it’s the key to everything.

So, is this 2000 all over again?

No. And this is the part I most want you to take away, because it’s the hope inside all this caution. Even though everybody tells you this is just like the dotcom bubble, it looks far more like 1998: a market at demanding prices, yes, but without the unleashed euphoria or the widespread madness of 2000.

It’s expensive, it’s not euphoric. And many of the companies leading today genuinely make money, which wasn’t the case in 2000.

And here is the chart that, for me, changes everything. Not only for what it shows, but for what it implies underneath.

Every big bubble is born of the same thing: people believing a change is going to happen overnight.

In 2000, they thought the internet would roll out in three years. It took fifteen. Today people say AI is going to change the world, and they’re probably right, but it will take its time.

And that gap between the hope and the reality is precisely the fuel of bubbles.

Look at the golden line: at this same point of the journey, the internet still had its biggest rises ahead. The bulk came after where we are now.

That’s why a fall now, if it doesn’t end in something worse, is not the end of the party: it can be the best way into a party that still has years to run. A scare and an opportunity, not a funeral.

And what does this chart really mean?

Before answering that question, I want us to answer this one:

What does the market truly exist for?

Not for you to make money. That’s what almost everyone believes. Wrong. And what that chart implies is no small thing, so let me explain it in the simplest way I can.

The market exists to move capital that isn’t producing towards the places in the economy where it does produce.

That is its job, and its only one. Whether you win or lose along the way is a matter of complete indifference to it.

It moves exactly as it has to, in order to leave as many people as possible out of the game, as many times as possible.

The deal, when you put your money in the right place, is this: that company becomes more productive, earns more, and in exchange you get paid, in dividends or in the value of your share.

And what is the right place? The one where capital has decided to place its bet in order to turn someone into a leader.

Look at SpaceX: its accounts today don’t come close to supporting that figure, and even so it has come to market valued at two trillion dollars. Why?

Because capital has decided it should be the flagship of American space exploration for the coming years. And when that decision is taken, the price doesn’t wait for the earnings: it comes before them.

That’s why the chart above isn’t comparing two technologies for the sake of it, nor putting two indices side by side by chance.

It compares how capital moves the whole machinery to raise a technology that is going to change the world, and to rule it. Two different technologies, in different eras, following the same playbook.

The Decision

That’s why the $40,000 portfolio deliberately stands still, and not because I’m afraid.

The bubble in chips, the cracks in the big names, big money selling, and everything we have seen in this article. The whole picture tells me today is not the moment, and that waiting costs almost nothing.

And I’m not afraid of the correction. Quite the opposite. If the economy holds and this stays a scare, it will be one of the best buying opportunities in many years, for a simple reason:

AI is reshaping the world and, like every great technology, it is going to inflate enormous bubbles. So far it has only inflated one, the chips. And we’ve already seen the playbook they use.

Every week I’ll publish a new market breakdown like this one and update every move in the portfolio, mistakes included.

Good luck, investor.

It is a classic move from the playbook of the strong hands that move the markets. It is designed to pull in as much money as possible through a powerfully bullish push and then, once they have everybody inside, to trigger a final capitulation in the asset.

The worst for BTC may still be ahead.

Let me quickly explain how they engineer this move and how it can affect your portfolio. By the time we’re done, it will serve you not only for BTC but for any asset in the markets.

What does this move in BTC really mean?

Everyone is telling you BTC is on its way to highs, so let’s look at what this move genuinely means.

As you can see, it is still inside its short-term downtrend. As I write this article, BTC is hitting the ceiling of the channel head-on, telling you the bullish move is coming to an end.

While everyone turns tremendously bullish, the indicators are signalling that something is not right.

What else is flagging trouble?

Everyone has gone ultra-bullish on BTC. Look at how fast the mood has changed.

On 17 August, the index that measures fear and greed in bitcoin read 31: Fear.

Seven sessions later it read 73: Greed. A level like that hadn’t been seen since October last year. From frightened to in a hurry in a single week.

That’s as far as everyone else goes. Now for the part nobody tells you.

The two lines at the bottom are the key. The golden one is people’s mood, spiking. The white one is the money: every bet currently live in bitcoin futures, for and against.

And it turns out that while the price rose 25% in nine sessions, those bets fell 27% from their peak on 15 August. The two lines cross right at the end of the chart, and that crossing is the whole story.

That crossing happens for one reason only: while the great majority of retail investors rush to get in, the big hands are rushing to get out.

On top of that, this whole move arrives at a moment when the indices are facing a correction through year-end. I’m not going to repeat everything we’ve been discussing these past days, so here’s a short summary.

1. There is a bubble in the semiconductor sector. It has been the leading sector of recent years and it is setting up for a fall. Indices like the KOSPI have already fallen 40%, but that is only the beginning.

2. When the leaders of the indices fall, the index doesn’t feel it at first, because a rotation of assets takes place. When that rotation ends, the index feels all the consequences at once.

3. We’re arriving at a bad seasonal moment for equities. October is known as the month of floors and, in midterm years, it is by far the worst of the whole year.

4. Add to all this a war with Iran and an oil price that has been held down by artificially intervening in the markets — but that doesn’t last forever. Inventories are not filled with paper; they’re filled with barrels, and if those barrels don’t arrive, the price goes up whatever you do.

5. And finally, the yen carry trade. One of the world’s money pipes, which I’ll explain in another article.

As you can see, the market is sending warning signals from every direction. There is calm on the surface, but under the bonnet there are serious problems.

Problems they are trying to solve with interventions in the yen, in oil and in bonds. Interventions that are like what happens at my house when a crack appears in the wall and I paint over it. Four days later it’s back, and bigger every time.

They are trying to hold the market up until the November midterms. They have two options: either they trigger a fall beforehand and arrive in November with the indices recovered, or they hold on until the very last second and the fall afterwards is far worse.

Now that you know the move in BTC and the state of the market around it, let’s get to the final part, the one that can serve you for the rest of your days investing in these markets.

The carrot and the stick

It is one of the oldest moves in the markets. Many of you think the market was created for you to make money. WRONG.

The market is designed to fool as many people as possible, as many times as possible.

This move BTC is making works like this:

1. Everyone is positioned bearish. You inject an enormous push higher, creating what is known as a short squeeze. You clear every bear out of the market.

2. Sentiment flips and when the world sees a 40% rise in a week, it shouts “back to highs”.

3. Everyone piles in bullish, thinking the worst is over.

4. Once everyone is positioned bullish on the asset, you run the same play in reverse. You inject a fall and a final capitulation, clear out every bull and leave the asset in a place where nobody wants anything to do with it because they’ve lost all hope.

5. In that place you accumulate quietly, and that is where the real floor is made.

6. Once they’ve accumulated enough, they blow the price higher and people start piling on, creating a new bullish push that lasts years.

As you can see, BTC is making this move right now, but it applies to any asset you’ll come across in the markets.

I also firmly believe this move will be accompanied by a fall in the Nasdaq and in semiconductor ETFs like the SOX over the coming months.

To finish, I’ll tell you what I plan to do myself — not as a recommendation for you to do the same, but because when I write these analyses I am the first to risk my own money on what I say.

My money where my mouth is.

The Final Decision

Given the current picture, I am not buying this move in BTC. I could be wrong, but I’ll have more chances to get in if this genuinely improves and the fall doesn’t happen.

Even so, the odds of a correction are high and, since I’m no fortune teller, I place myself on the side where the odds favour me — and right now that means waiting for a correction in the markets and in BTC so I can get in at a better price before year-end, between September and November 2026.

If things don’t get too much worse, it could be one of the best buying opportunities in years.

I hope this article has been useful, that you take away an idea you can use forever and, above all, that it helps you be prudent in the markets.

Good luck, investor.